The Los Angeles Lakers will visit the Miami Heat on Friday in a matchup between two teams performing at an impressive level in the early portion of the 2019-20 NBA season. LeBron James and Anthony Davis key the Lakers in sporting a 22-3 record, while Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are performing at an All-Star level for the Heat. Tip-off is at 7 p.m. ET at the American Airlines Arena. Sportsbooks list the Lakers as five-point road favorites, up slightly from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 214.5 in the latest Lakers vs. Heat odds. Before you make any Lakers vs. Heat picks and NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It's already returned almost $800 in profit on all its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 8 on a blistering 16-7 run on all top-rated NBA against the spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Heat. We can tell you that the model is leaning under, and it has generated a strong against the spread pick that is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see it. Now, here are several NBA betting lines for Lakers vs. Heat.
Lakers vs. Heat spread: Lakers -5
Lakers vs. Heat over-under: 214.5 points
Lakers vs. Heat money line: Lakers -215, Heat +175
LAL: 15 wins in last 16 games and 12-0 away from Los Angeles
MIA: Unbeaten (11-0) at home this season
The model knows that the Heat have been lights-out at home this season, most recently pulling off a memorable comeback to topple the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday evening. Miami is 11-0 at home, compared to just 7-6 on the road, but the Heat haven't faced a test to the level of the Lakers to this point. Butler keys everything for the Heat, averaging 20.6 points, 7.0 assists and 6.9 rebounds while providing high-end wing defense on the other end of the floor. Butler certainly isn't alone, however, with Miami receiving impressive offensive contributions from rookies Tyler Herro, who's listed as questionable for Friday's game with illness, and Kendrick Nunn, to go along with tremendous play from Adebayo. Adebayo has been a two-way monster this season, averaging a double-double and creating havoc defensively. His presence will be needed against a Lakers frontline that includes Anthony Davis, but Miami's early-season performance should inspire confidence, even in a difficult spot.
Just because the Heat have a few edges doesn't mean Miami will cover the Lakers vs. Heat point spread on Friday night.
The model also knows that the Lakers have been a two-way juggernaut this season, operating as one of the NBA's best teams from wire to wire. Davis is averaging 27.2 points, 9.2 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game to spur the team on the interior and James has been tremendous, averaging 25.8 points, 10.8 assists and 7.0 rebounds as an all-court force. The duo combines to lead the Lakers to a top-three offense in the NBA and the central part of that attack is elite-level efficiency from a shooting perspective. While Los Angeles doesn't get to the free throw line at a tremendous rate, the team creates quality attempts with regularity and the Lakers also present a top-10 unit in offensive rebounding that helps to create additional opportunities.
Defensively, the Lakers have also been tremendous, leaning heavily on Davis, Danny Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Los Angeles ranks as an above-average defense in virtually every metric and the Lakers are particularly adept at securing defensive rebounds and forcing turnovers. Against the NBA's worst team at turning the ball over in Miami, that is a specific area to watch and, if the Heat cannot take care of possessions, the Lakers should be able to capitalize in major fashion.
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